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Key quote:

Biden’s defiance against calls for him to leave the presidential campaign after last month’s debate have only worsened his chances in November, Cook Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter wrote.

“Biden was losing pre-debate. Now, he’s losing by a bit more,” she said, adding that the possibility Biden leaves the race at this point is “remote.”

Citing postdebate polling, Cook announced it will move Minnesota, New Hampshire and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District from “Likely Democratic” to “Lean Democratic.” The group also moved Nevada, Arizona and Georgia from “Tossup” to “Lean Republican.”

  • jordanlund@lemmy.worldM
    85·
    6 months ago

    Nevada, Arizona and Georgia have been on the “R” side for quite some time now.

    I’m not currently seeing a path where Biden can win. Last time it all came down to New Mexico.

    This time? Michigan is the only bright spot.

    Arizona - Trump +3 to +7
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/arizona/

    Nevada - Trump +3 to +6
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/nevada/

    New Mexico - Biden +1 to +2
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-mexico/

    Georgia - Trump +1 to +5
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/georgia/

    Pennsylvania - Trump +3 to +6
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

    Michigan - Biden +5 to +6
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/michigan/

    Wisconsin - Biden +2 to +3
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

    Minnesota - Biden +1 to +2
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/minnesota/

    North Carolina - Trump +2 to +3
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/north-carolina/

    Here’s what it looks mapped out:

    Biden CANNOT LOSE either Pennsylvania or Michigan. He HAS to carry both to block a Trump win.

    • JimSamtanko@lemm.ee
      73·
      6 months ago

      And how accurate has 538 been lately? Didn’t they have Clinton winning in 2016?

      • jordanlund@lemmy.worldM
        61·
        6 months ago

        This isn’t about their predictions, it’s looking at recent polling data they are aggregating.

        • JimSamtanko@lemm.ee
          53·
          6 months ago

          And polling data is seriously flawed. I suggest people vote as if there are no polls.

          • jordanlund@lemmy.worldM
            6·
            6 months ago

            It can be flawed, which is why you track multiple polls over time.

            Using the same process outlined above, I watched these states go from pro-Biden, to toss-up, to pro-Trump, and now stronger pro-Trump.

            It’s less about the actual numbers and more about the momentum. Biden’s campaign is running out of steam, Trump’s is gaining momentum.

            • JimSamtanko@lemm.ee
              45·
              6 months ago

              Well, I can honestly say that as a cis white male, I will have little to worry about when Biden looses. And if I left it at this, no one would ever hear from me.

              But I have LGBTQ in my family, my blood. And many friends that will be hurt by another four years of Trump.

              So… this is where we’re at.

              You have a shit ton of people in your community- urging people to not vote because “old!” While a rapist/convicted felon is waltzing right through the mess, not even being questioned about how or why he lied in every answer he gave.

              These people are fucking lunatics man. This should be a no brainer. Biden’s podium could poll worse than Trump and I’d vote for it.

              These people are willing to destroy a nation if it means an old man is not elected. Note how I didn’t say genocide supporter- yeah. It’s a non issue now with them. Did you notice?

      • soratoyuki@lemmy.world
        85·
        6 months ago

        538 gave Trump about a 30% chance of winning in 2016, while a lot of other poll aggregators were giving him single digit chances.

        Biden is unpopular and losing. He was unpopular and losing before the debate and he’s still unpopular and losing. He barely beat an impeached Trump that oversaw almost a million Covid deaths and a wrecked economy in 2020, and that was when he could still string two coherent sentences together.

        Why are so many liberals determined to bury their heads in the sand about this? The Democratic Party is casually coasting towards catastrophe.

        • ShittyBeatlesFCPres@lemmy.worldEnglish
          33·
          6 months ago

          Believe me, no one is burying their heads in the sand. The NY Times just spent like two weeks covering nothing but Biden’s age. I had to scroll down like 1500px to find the fucking French election results and I’m not even sure they bothered to send someone to cover the hurricane that wrecked multiple countries and hit one of the most populous regions of the country.

        • JimSamtanko@lemm.ee
          28·
          6 months ago

          Hmmm… I wonder if it has anything to do with all the non voting SJWs that show up every four years to demand bullshit they don’t even understand.

          Also, it’s okay for them to be woefully wrong, as long as others are…. wronger?

    • soratoyuki@lemmy.world
      42·
      6 months ago

      Imagine being downvoted for posting polls lol. I hate to invoke Reddit, but for all the (very legitimate!) criticism people had of a The Donald and other heavily censored and astroturfed conservative communities, internet liberals created the exact same echo chambers for themselves that suddenly burst after the debate. I guess they have no idea for to handle that they’ve been lied to about Biden and the state of the election, and all they can do is downvote the truth?