You’re correct on all counts, but you’re also not a typical desktop user, you’re definitely a professional or power user with specific needs.

The average user needs the ability to use a web browser and that’s honestly about it. That’s why Chromebooks are so popular with schools. A basic Linux desktop is quite capable for a standard user.

For the things yoi need you’re correct that it’s not 1:1 and you’d need to move to open source alternatives or tinker with VMs/WINE to get those apps working and it would be a chore.

I expect to see this soon as a way of combatting people who join one for a month or two, binge, then switch to another provider.

It might not come in the form of contracts at first, maybe they will just jack up the price of month to month high enough that people will voluntarily buy into a contract or yearly pre-purchase.

Trust me, there is always a way to make more money if you’re OK with being anti-consumer. It’s just a matter of time.