Biden actually gained a point since last month’s survey, which was taken before the debate. In this poll, he leads Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup. But Biden slips when third-party options are introduced, with Trump holding the slightest advantage with 43% to 42%.
Those numbers, though, do not represent statistically significant differences, as the margin of error in the survey is +/- 3.1 percentage points, meaning results could be 3 points higher or lower.
The poll also found that, at this point, no other mainstream Democrat who has been mentioned as a replacement for the president on the ticket does better than Biden.
The results reflect the hyperpolarized political environment in the country and the reality that both of the major parties’ presumptive nominees bring with them significant disadvantages. Majorities of those surveyed continue to say they have a negative opinion of both men, and neither, they say, should be on the ballot at all.
Archived at https://web.archive.org/web/20240712121307/https://www.npr.org/2024/07/12/nx-s1-5036518/biden-trump-poll
Suppose the “best case” scenario for Biden materializes. He hangs on, remains the nominee, and pulls an upset against Trump in November.
Even in this scenario, I’d argue that his legacy is irrevocably tarnished. His decision in 2022/2023 to run would still be a terrible decision, like a poker player betting the whole pot on a horrible hand and winning by dumb luck. His staff would still be complicit in lying to the world. It would be the shabbiest victory imaginable… and all that before the question of how he lasts another four years in office.
None of that matters as much as beating Trump tho
Yeah, he said exactly that in the speech last night. Didn’t anyone watch it?
Someone asked him “What about your legacy?” He said he didn’t care about his legacy, he cares about “finishing the job” and getting things done for the United States of America. That’s exactly what you want to hear from a presidential candidate.
“Legacy” is something journalists care about because they don’t do anything tangible. They just write articles about people who actually do things. Biden’s focus on action actually made me like him more.
That’s the point. Biden’s legacy is most likely a Trump second term, alongside a Republican Senate and House. Even if he wins by dumb luck, it would still have been a bad decision, like a bad poker play that wins.