Biden actually gained a point since last month’s survey, which was taken before the debate. In this poll, he leads Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup. But Biden slips when third-party options are introduced, with Trump holding the slightest advantage with 43% to 42%.
Those numbers, though, do not represent statistically significant differences, as the margin of error in the survey is +/- 3.1 percentage points, meaning results could be 3 points higher or lower.
The poll also found that, at this point, no other mainstream Democrat who has been mentioned as a replacement for the president on the ticket does better than Biden.
The results reflect the hyperpolarized political environment in the country and the reality that both of the major parties’ presumptive nominees bring with them significant disadvantages. Majorities of those surveyed continue to say they have a negative opinion of both men, and neither, they say, should be on the ballot at all.
Archived at https://web.archive.org/web/20240712121307/https://www.npr.org/2024/07/12/nx-s1-5036518/biden-trump-poll
I’d rather vote for a literal corpse than vote GOP at this point.
Be careful what you wish for.
Well personally I’m looking forward to the corpse administration.
You already had it. Ronny had two terms even.
It’s only right they get a representative, they outnumber us. I remember trying to find out the ratio a while ago and it was surprising then and it only gotten more surprising. With all the power of today’s estimates provided by google there are roughly 14 dead humans for every human that is currently alive.
Exactly, that’s why I always try to drive a few to the polls, usually have one or two in my trunk anyhow.
Mel Carnahan won his Senate race.
Yeah, but some people require a pulse…
So we can run the corpse, and hope that’s enough to stop trump.
Or we can run someone with a pulse, hell, even a functional competent adult.
And we’ll keep all of those corpse voters, and gain even more Dem voters
So shouldn’t we run the non-corpse candidate?
Like, more votes is better…
and gain even more Dem voters
That might be true, but
The poll also found that, at this point, no other mainstream Democrat who has been mentioned as a replacement for the president on the ticket does better than Biden.
Let’s compare it to a foot race
Biden is wearing all the latest gear. Has been training for a year, and has an entire support team.
He runs it in a minute
Which is about the same as these five people we pulled off the street who didn’t know they were running 2 seconds ago. They didn’t even stop to stretch, just ran
We have 4 months to the big race.
Why stick with the person who “topped out” is just as good as people who legitimately haven’t even tried?
Wouldn’t it make more sense to pick one and train them up for the next four months?
Like, you get that right? Biden isn’t turning this around. The best he can do is maintain.
That is a decent point, I think there’s also an argument that if/when those candidates do stop to stretch (so to speak) they might suddenly tear an ACL or whatever. Like the undecided voter who’s never heard of Kamala or Gavin or Gretchen or whoever might hate them when they get to know them.
Ultimately, I think we’d get very similar policy out of a Biden term 2 or Harris/Newsome/Whitmer term 1, so I don’t really care who it is so long as they can beat Trump, and I think it’s still hard to say who can best do that (although the fact that the answer to that question isn’t “the incumbent, duh” really underscores what a completely idiotic and deeply frustrating choice Biden was in 2020 for me, and I hope everyone who supported him in that primary understands how badly they fucked all of us).
Ultimately, I think we’d get very similar policy out of a Biden term 2 or Harris/Newsome/Whitmer term 1, so I don’t really care who it is so long as they can beat Trump,
Right…
And lots of people closer to Biden than either of us will ever be are saying he can’t beat trump.
And the more the public sees him. The less voters want him.
He is historically unpopular, and this was his first press conference in almost a year. There just isn’t a path for Biden to improve, or he’d have taken it by now. It’s not like this election came out of nowhere, the best campaign plan him and his team could come up with. Was to fucking hide him until it was too late to change candidates.
In 2024, this is peak Biden, there’s no where to go but down.
9/10 for the analogy. Needed more descriptions. No fats, jacks or malarkey. Corn-pop should have been a runner. He deserved it. He lost all his street cred after his encounter with Biden. He manages a Radio Shack now. I know, shocked me too.
Yeah, but some people require a pulse…
Do those people want a Democratic president but believe Trump would be better than Kamala? Do they believe the Republican platform (ie end democracy and reform as an authoritarian theocracy) is better than the Democratic platform on any particular issue?
You want to go convince 100 million Americans?
Or run someone they’re willing to vote for so we stop trump?
At this point it legitimately doesn’t matter why Biden is so unpopular, or even why he’s unable to change that even with billions of dollars.
What matters is winning the election
At this point it legitimately doesn’t matter why Biden is so unpopular … What matters is winning the election
I agree. Which is why I didn’t mention Biden. I don’t care who the Democratic nominee is at this point. I am voting for them. And the people saying they can’t vote for Biden because he old need to reconcile that if they’re not voting for the Democratic nominee then they get Trump and Project 2025 bringing fascism full force. Kamala is t Biden, she has a pulse, she’s presumptively on the Democratic ticket. They can vote for her instead of for Biden. They can tell themselves they’re voting for the platform and not for Biden. Just as long as they vote for the Democratic ticket.
Then what the fuck were you even trying to say:
Do those people want a Democratic president but believe Trump would be better than Kamala? Do they believe the Republican platform (ie end democracy and reform as an authoritarian theocracy) is better than the Democratic platform on any particular issue?
I’m saying don’t think of it as voting for Biden. Think of it as voting for the Democratic platform, to defeat the Republican platform. If a voter is more aligned with the Dem. platform but not voting for the Democratic nominee if it’s Biden, they’re just not understanding the reality of how our elections work.
More likely they won’t show up to vote.
I suspect that the debate was an “emperor has no clothes on” moment for Democratic politicians. Everyone already knew that Biden is old but no one who thought that was a big problem wanted to be the first one to say so. (Why risk being sidelined for disloyalty to the party in the case where you speak out but then no one else does?) The debate was just the tipping point that made age an issue the politicians were willing to talk about, but voters don’t have the problem with being disloyal that politicians do so they had already taken Biden’s age into account in a way that politicians publicly hadn’t.
With that said, these national polls are fun for people who watch the election like a sporting event but they’re a poor way to actually predict victory. How many electoral college votes each candidate will have is independent from his support in much of the country, where only a catastrophic event could possibly change a state’s electoral outcome. Meanwhile in swing states the small difference in polls like this appears to be magnified in Trump’s favor.
National polls are essentially garbage in close elections. They really only say if there’s going to be a landslide. The fact nationwide polls are close and getting closer is generally bad for an incumbent.
With you until the last line. I guess “generally” saves it. I don’t think you can say these close polls are bad for Biden, because as you pointed out polling is essentially garbage. I think it’s a mix of selection bias and some phenomenon by which some people just lie to pollsters. Even exit polls have been increasingly unreliable.
It’s worth noting that NPR’s national newscast mentioned that, with 3rd party candidates, and since Biden is trailing significantly in key swing states, he would need to do be doing better in a national poll if he were to be doing well. Right now the odds are still in Trump’s favor.
I know it’s already ongoing, but has the official race started yet?
I’m a little confused. Can you elaborate? What do you mean by the official race?
That said, Biden and Trump have not been officially nominated by their parties. The GOP convention is the week of July 15th, and the Dems are the next month. That’s when the state delegates lock in the candidates.
Well yes I guess those dates were what I was thinking of, thanks!
I mean I guess they’ll start spending their war chests from that time onwards, right (and Biden has a bigger one, if I got that right)? So today it’s like before the storm sort of?
They’re spending campaign funds already. They’re allowed to do that since they are in primary mode.
And that said, since campaign finance rules are pretty loose in the US these days, technically private donors and political action committees can basically blow tons of money on ads that are in services of a campaign, but technically not coming directly from a campaign. And people have doing that for quite a while now as well.
If they’re polling “likely voters” then it really shouldn’t change. The people most likely to vote are usually also the most engaged, therefore they’ve already decided. I think most “swings” in the polls are just due to sampling. It’s the unlikely or sort of “fair weather” voters that are going to make or break things. Also, gerrymandering and vote suppression.
This is not good news.
Reminder:
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Biden was TEN POINTS ahead of where he is now back in 2020.
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Biden ASKED for this debate because he was already trailing in the polls and not where he needs to be. At best things remain the same, which is to say poor. At worst, they are worse.
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2020 was decided by 40,000 undecided low-info apathetic voters in 3 battleground states. If those people remain apathetic and polls remain this close, Biden will lose.
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His own campaign staff is now reportedly saying they see no viable path to victory.
Further key points raised in this poll/article:
Nearly two-thirds of the more than 1,300 respondents said they believe Biden lacks the mental fitness to be president. That includes almost 4 in 10 Democrats.
That said, politicians tend to be good political weathervanes, with their own high-quality polling, and several of the Democratic House members who have advocated for Biden to leave the race are from competitive swing districts.
Third parties pull younger voters, Biden doing better with those most likely to vote
When third parties are factored in, Trump and Biden are statistically tied, with Trump at 43% and Biden 42%.
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Nearly two-thirds of the more than 1,300 respondents said they believe Biden lacks the mental fitness to be president. That includes almost 4 in 10 Democrats.
And 60% polled said trump was going to win…
But I’m sure people are going to say this poll is good for Biden.
It doesn’t matter who people expect to win and who they consider the underdog. The only thing that matters is who actually gets the most votes.
And in this poll, that person was Biden. So this poll is good news for Biden.
And in this poll, that person was Biden. So this poll is good news for Biden.
Factually untrue:
But Biden slips when third-party options are introduced, with Trump holding the slightest advantage with 43% to 42%.
You didn’t even have to click the article, OP quoted it in the summary…
Did you not even read that?
Are you going to change your conclusion now?
Or will you act like a trump supporter and change your “logic” so that you still get the conclusion you want?
In this poll, he leads Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup.
That’s all I care about.
Why?
The general won’t be head to head.
It’s going to have RFK jr’s brain worm, just like this poll.
No, the general mostly will be head to head. Because RFK isn’t even on the ballot in most states.
Can you provide a single state where the only two options are going to be Biden or trump then?
Because I don’t believe there’s a single one that’s actually “head to head” where the small part of this poll you care about would ever matter.
Moving goalposts so soon? You don’t seem to care about RFK any more.
The only 3rd party candidates in that poll with over 2% are RFK and West. In most states, neither are on the ballot. So the relevant poll results are head to head.
But keep trying to twist the results to explain Why This Is Bad News For Biden. Maybe you’ll land a job at the NYT.
A lot of people are afraid Trump is going to win, and that’s motivating them to vote for Biden. The results you’re quoting support this.
I want Democrats to think Trump is going to win, otherwise they’ll stay home like they did in 2016.
Not quite. 60% said they don’t think Biden can do the job, not that Trump would win
Edit: read further down and yeah 6 in 10 said they think Trump will win, you right
Yeah there’s not much good news in there…
I agree things are bad, and I wish we had a better candidate than Biden.
But we don’t. Biden is the candidate, and he must win.
I just want to point out that it is a good thing if Democrats are afraid Biden won’t win. Overconfidence hurt Clinton in several states. Democrats are going to be talking about it, encouraging their friends to vote, shaming people for supporting Trump, and freaking out about another Trump presidency. We don’t want complacency.
I just want to point out that it is a good thing if Democrats are afraid Biden won’t win
This is like as a plane plunges into the ocean, the pilots making an announcement thanking passengers for putting their seatbelts on.
And I have zero idea why you’re still insisting Biden can’t be replaced
I could have sworn we got over that speed bump. A couple times really…
Edit:
Yeah. That was you
Sorry man. I dont think us repeating this again will help.
You’re gonna have to ask someone else for help
I see every headline references “polls” now. That’s bad.
Yeah, that’s about what I expected. No one cares that Biden is a low-energy gaff machine, because he wouldn’t’ve ever been president. Biden had the opportunity to rise above expectations, and he failed. But that just means he performed as expected, and no one is going to think less of him for it.
Suppose the “best case” scenario for Biden materializes. He hangs on, remains the nominee, and pulls an upset against Trump in November.
Even in this scenario, I’d argue that his legacy is irrevocably tarnished. His decision in 2022/2023 to run would still be a terrible decision, like a poker player betting the whole pot on a horrible hand and winning by dumb luck. His staff would still be complicit in lying to the world. It would be the shabbiest victory imaginable… and all that before the question of how he lasts another four years in office.
None of that matters as much as beating Trump tho
Yeah, he said exactly that in the speech last night. Didn’t anyone watch it?
Someone asked him “What about your legacy?” He said he didn’t care about his legacy, he cares about “finishing the job” and getting things done for the United States of America. That’s exactly what you want to hear from a presidential candidate.
“Legacy” is something journalists care about because they don’t do anything tangible. They just write articles about people who actually do things. Biden’s focus on action actually made me like him more.
That’s the point. Biden’s legacy is most likely a Trump second term, alongside a Republican Senate and House. Even if he wins by dumb luck, it would still have been a bad decision, like a bad poker play that wins.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
The results reflect the hyperpolarized political environment in the country and the reality that both of the major parties’ presumptive nominees bring with them significant disadvantages.
“This is an unpleasant rematch with two unpopular people,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, “but Biden gets points for honesty and character.
A Democratic presidential candidate typically needs a wider margin in national polls for that to translate to an Electoral College victory because of the nature of swing states.
That said, politicians tend to be good political weathervanes, with their own high-quality polling, and several of the Democratic House members who have advocated for Biden to leave the race are from competitive swing districts.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pulled 8%, tied for the lowest support for him since Marist started including him in the survey in April.
Vice President Kamala Harris, the most likely successor if Biden were to decide against continuing his campaign, also gets 50% compared to 49% for Trump.
The original article contains 932 words, the summary contains 166 words. Saved 82%. I’m a bot and I’m open source!
And Biden stans like polls again.
The cognative dissonance is hilarious. They choose which data and news is important based on how it makes them feel. The fear of Trump is turning them into exactly what the Republicans used to be. I promise it’s okay to acknowledge polls and stories that don’t priase Biden.
