Biden actually gained a point since last month’s survey, which was taken before the debate. In this poll, he leads Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup. But Biden slips when third-party options are introduced, with Trump holding the slightest advantage with 43% to 42%.
Those numbers, though, do not represent statistically significant differences, as the margin of error in the survey is +/- 3.1 percentage points, meaning results could be 3 points higher or lower.
The poll also found that, at this point, no other mainstream Democrat who has been mentioned as a replacement for the president on the ticket does better than Biden.
The results reflect the hyperpolarized political environment in the country and the reality that both of the major parties’ presumptive nominees bring with them significant disadvantages. Majorities of those surveyed continue to say they have a negative opinion of both men, and neither, they say, should be on the ballot at all.
Archived at https://web.archive.org/web/20240712121307/https://www.npr.org/2024/07/12/nx-s1-5036518/biden-trump-poll
If they’re polling “likely voters” then it really shouldn’t change. The people most likely to vote are usually also the most engaged, therefore they’ve already decided. I think most “swings” in the polls are just due to sampling. It’s the unlikely or sort of “fair weather” voters that are going to make or break things. Also, gerrymandering and vote suppression.