Biden actually gained a point since last month’s survey, which was taken before the debate. In this poll, he leads Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup. But Biden slips when third-party options are introduced, with Trump holding the slightest advantage with 43% to 42%.
Those numbers, though, do not represent statistically significant differences, as the margin of error in the survey is +/- 3.1 percentage points, meaning results could be 3 points higher or lower.
The poll also found that, at this point, no other mainstream Democrat who has been mentioned as a replacement for the president on the ticket does better than Biden.
The results reflect the hyperpolarized political environment in the country and the reality that both of the major parties’ presumptive nominees bring with them significant disadvantages. Majorities of those surveyed continue to say they have a negative opinion of both men, and neither, they say, should be on the ballot at all.
Archived at https://web.archive.org/web/20240712121307/https://www.npr.org/2024/07/12/nx-s1-5036518/biden-trump-poll
Can you provide a single state where the only two options are going to be Biden or trump then?
Because I don’t believe there’s a single one that’s actually “head to head” where the small part of this poll you care about would ever matter.
Moving goalposts so soon? You don’t seem to care about RFK any more.
The only 3rd party candidates in that poll with over 2% are RFK and West. In most states, neither are on the ballot. So the relevant poll results are head to head.
But keep trying to twist the results to explain Why This Is Bad News For Biden. Maybe you’ll land a job at the NYT.
Why would I?
You said you only care about the head to head poll numbers.
I want to know a single state where the election is actually head to head.
Can you not do that?
I only care about the head to head numbers because the alternative includes candidates who most people can’t vote for.
The main third party candidates are in the majority of battleground states tho…
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/politics/presidential-candidates-third-party-independent.html
The states that actually matter.
What aren’t you understanding about this?
I mean. That’s not even all the states, they have months to get signatures to increase that
And moving forward with Biden is helping them get signatures.
There is just sooooo much you’re not thinking of. And you seem actively resistant to learning about any of it.
I understand that your preferred poll includes candidates who most people can’t vote for.
If I saw a poll where the choices were Biden, Trump, and Taylor Swift then I wouldn’t pay any attention to that one either. You probably would, though, if it was bad for Biden.
So you didn’t look at that link and see that the battleground states have third party candidates already on their ballots?
Or you don’t understand that those are the states that matter?
Yes, and I also saw that the top 3rd party choices in the poll are not on the ballot in most battleground states.
So most people who chose 3rd party in the poll will end up voting for someone else.
So that poll is useless.
…
I mean. That’s literally not true.
But I’ve already given you the sources that show that.
I led you to the water homie, I can’t make you drink it.