Biden actually gained a point since last month’s survey, which was taken before the debate. In this poll, he leads Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup. But Biden slips when third-party options are introduced, with Trump holding the slightest advantage with 43% to 42%.

Those numbers, though, do not represent statistically significant differences, as the margin of error in the survey is +/- 3.1 percentage points, meaning results could be 3 points higher or lower.

The poll also found that, at this point, no other mainstream Democrat who has been mentioned as a replacement for the president on the ticket does better than Biden.

The results reflect the hyperpolarized political environment in the country and the reality that both of the major parties’ presumptive nominees bring with them significant disadvantages. Majorities of those surveyed continue to say they have a negative opinion of both men, and neither, they say, should be on the ballot at all.

Archived at https://web.archive.org/web/20240712121307/https://www.npr.org/2024/07/12/nx-s1-5036518/biden-trump-poll

  • givesomefucks@lemmy.worldEnglish
    1912·
    4 months ago

    Nearly two-thirds of the more than 1,300 respondents said they believe Biden lacks the mental fitness to be president. That includes almost 4 in 10 Democrats.

    And 60% polled said trump was going to win…

    But I’m sure people are going to say this poll is good for Biden.

    • FlowVoid@lemmy.worldEnglish
      124·
      4 months ago

      It doesn’t matter who people expect to win and who they consider the underdog. The only thing that matters is who actually gets the most votes.

      And in this poll, that person was Biden. So this poll is good news for Biden.

      • givesomefucks@lemmy.worldEnglish
        57·
        4 months ago

        And in this poll, that person was Biden. So this poll is good news for Biden.

        Factually untrue:

        But Biden slips when third-party options are introduced, with Trump holding the slightest advantage with 43% to 42%.

        You didn’t even have to click the article, OP quoted it in the summary…

        Did you not even read that?

        Are you going to change your conclusion now?

        Or will you act like a trump supporter and change your “logic” so that you still get the conclusion you want?

        • FlowVoid@lemmy.worldEnglish
          43·
          4 months ago

          In this poll, he leads Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup.

          That’s all I care about.

          • givesomefucks@lemmy.worldEnglish
            45·
            4 months ago

            Why?

            The general won’t be head to head.

            It’s going to have RFK jr’s brain worm, just like this poll.

            • FlowVoid@lemmy.worldEnglish
              53·
              4 months ago

              No, the general mostly will be head to head. Because RFK isn’t even on the ballot in most states.

              • givesomefucks@lemmy.worldEnglish
                23·
                4 months ago

                Can you provide a single state where the only two options are going to be Biden or trump then?

                Because I don’t believe there’s a single one that’s actually “head to head” where the small part of this poll you care about would ever matter.

                • FlowVoid@lemmy.worldEnglish
                  33·
                  4 months ago

                  Moving goalposts so soon? You don’t seem to care about RFK any more.

                  The only 3rd party candidates in that poll with over 2% are RFK and West. In most states, neither are on the ballot. So the relevant poll results are head to head.

                  But keep trying to twist the results to explain Why This Is Bad News For Biden. Maybe you’ll land a job at the NYT.

                  • givesomefucks@lemmy.worldEnglish
                    45·
                    4 months ago

                    Moving goalposts so soon? You don’t seem to care about RFK any more

                    Why would I?

                    You said you only care about the head to head poll numbers.

                    I want to know a single state where the election is actually head to head.

                    Can you not do that?

    • FrostyTheDoo@lemmy.world
      71·
      4 months ago

      A lot of people are afraid Trump is going to win, and that’s motivating them to vote for Biden. The results you’re quoting support this.

      I want Democrats to think Trump is going to win, otherwise they’ll stay home like they did in 2016.

    • originalfrozenbanana@lemm.ee
      62·
      4 months ago

      Not quite. 60% said they don’t think Biden can do the job, not that Trump would win

      Edit: read further down and yeah 6 in 10 said they think Trump will win, you right

    • themeatbridge@lemmy.world
      42·
      4 months ago

      I agree things are bad, and I wish we had a better candidate than Biden.

      But we don’t. Biden is the candidate, and he must win.

      I just want to point out that it is a good thing if Democrats are afraid Biden won’t win. Overconfidence hurt Clinton in several states. Democrats are going to be talking about it, encouraging their friends to vote, shaming people for supporting Trump, and freaking out about another Trump presidency. We don’t want complacency.

      • givesomefucks@lemmy.worldEnglish
        28·
        4 months ago

        I just want to point out that it is a good thing if Democrats are afraid Biden won’t win

        This is like as a plane plunges into the ocean, the pilots making an announcement thanking passengers for putting their seatbelts on.

        And I have zero idea why you’re still insisting Biden can’t be replaced

        I could have sworn we got over that speed bump. A couple times really…

        Edit:

        Yeah. That was you

        Sorry man. I dont think us repeating this again will help.

        You’re gonna have to ask someone else for help