We now return you to your regularly scheduled Megathread!
Today is July 15th and it’s the first day of the Republican National Convention where Donald J. Trump will be officially nominated as the Republican candidate for President of the United States.
The convention runs Mon-Thur, you can see the calendar of events here:
https://gopconvention2024.com/master-calendar/
For those who have never really watched a convention before, don’t expect a lot on day 1. Generally a lot of speech making and bloviating.
The expectation is Trump will announce his running mate on Tuesday, then more speeches on Wednesday, and the state by state nomination process on Thursday.
Of course, this is all up in the air given the assassination attempt. Nobody has seen a convention this close after an attempt on a candidate’s life, so nobody is 100% sure how it’s all going to go!
I’ll be breaking out each day into it’s own megathread, so if you’re looking for something specific on, say, Wednesday, you don’t have to wade through 2 other days worth of comments to find it!
Yeah I think the most difficult aspect of this prediction would be how polarization has impacted the ability for anyone to cross, say, a 45% threshold?
I just don’t think it matters to any likely Democratic voter that Trump improves his image or is gaining sympathy. Likewise, I still don’t think any Trump voter is going to ever go vote for Biden.
Its still all about turnout, which is what the ABWD crowd has never been able to understand: that its not about what they think, its about if people are interested or not interested in showing up the polls. And, interestingly, that kind of information won’t show up in polls of “likely voters”, because the people who are responsible for the departure between polling and elections aren’t likely voters. So its bad enough that Biden is polling as abysmally as he is, but its also an imperfect metric in that it doesn’t predict enthusiasm/ likelihood to actually register and vote.
I have Biden at a less than 5% probability of winning based on my date dependent polling-probability which uses the under/over polling performance metrics from last cycle. I haven’t updated it to Biden’s new, lower polling data, but if people are interested I can get around to it some time this week.