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Cake day: June 2nd, 2023

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  • Even if her gender and name adjusts the probability somewhat, it should all still be cancelled out by the order of magnitude by which the number of farmers outnumbers teachers, even in countries where a name like Paige is common. Teachers are an incredibly uncommon profession in the grand scheme of things, because it only takes a small proportion of them for a society to function (no offense intended to teachers of course)

    But I will admit, I believe the original version of this thought experiment didn’t give the woman a name. I was just trying to be a bit more descriptive haha. I’m pretty sure the thought experiment also predates the level of automation that is now common in agriculture. I was mostly just reconstructing it from memory.

    Edit: yeah I just looked it up and in the US there is roughly the same number of teachers and farmers (around 3.5-4 million). I guess this particular version of the thought experiment is dead. But you could construct a similar one with a more common profession. Or just pretend it’s still the 60s when you give your answer. Farming has simply become way too automated in the modern era.

    Edit 2: I’m just now realizing the original version of this that I heard was with librarians, not teachers! Librarians are actually still orders of magnitude less common than farmers so it would work in that case. This is what I get for relying on memory for my clever comments.


  • You’re conflating correlation with causation.

    Causation: Most homebrewing is a moderately expensive hobby, and so will skew toward middle class people

    Correlation: where you are located, middle class people are probably majority white. Also probably the majority of people in your area in general are white. Also the majority of people in general are straight.

    If you were in Japan or Colombia or Jamaica, middle class people would not be majority white.

    As for the male thing, brewing beer is viewed as a more masculine hobby. Call it a self fulfilling prophecy. Many women probably choose not to join the hobby because they view it as not something women should do.


    As an aside, it’s helpful to learn about Bayesian statistics in order to interpret trends and observations that you see in the world around you. Here’s an example:

    Paige is a young woman. Paige enjoys reading books and has a quiet demeanor. She also enjoys drinking coffee and watching romantic comedies.

    What is more likely?

    A) Paige is a teacher librarian

    B) Paige is a farmer

    Most people answer teacher librarian, but the answer is that Paige is overwhelmingly more likely to be a farmer. Simply because there are orders of magnitude more farmers than teachers librarians in the world.

    Edit: this would have made more sense if I said librarian instead of teacher. Let’s all just pretend I did 😅