Removed by mod
And preferably, name someone who has announced their candidacy.
A list of people you’d like in the job isn’t as relevant. I would’ve accepted almost any of the names people had floated, had any of them publicly shown interest.
But here we are with people often demanding Jon Stewart and Michelle Obama throw their hats in the ring, and that’s two people who keep saying they aren’t interested.
Edit: the shit people downvote here.
No one who wants to run in 2028 is going to run against the incumbent President unless that President is incredibly weak.
Biden in 2020 was solid, but even he had a close win over Trump. Biden 2022 was starting to show signs of wear (understandably so), but planning for 2024 made sense. Not my favorite choice, but I don’t think it was necessarily wrong. 2024 SOTU Biden scared Republicans so much they made up all sorts of drug rumors.
Jump to 1st Debate 2024 Biden. That was his first real misstep. Biden can recover from this.
Biden was far from my first choice in 2020, but he’s done a great job. He needs to get out there and prove it. Showcase what he’s done and pitch a plan for a future America.
Right now I don’t know if Biden can do that. I saw parts of it during the debate, but I want more. Biden should be able to convince his own party he has what it takes to win. Biden isn’t incredibly weak at the moment, but he’s getting weaker.
At the end of the day I’m voting for Biden (or his replacement) because I believe in Democrat policy. I’m not just voting “against Trump”, I believe Democratic policy is better for Americans and the American people. Republican policy, especially under Trump, isn’t even worth considering, it’s fascism and I don’t mean that hyperbolically.
If Biden can’t beat Democrats, Biden can’t beat Trump and that’s a big fuckin concern to me.
Also, since you’re looking for a name, Newsom has made it clear he is going to run in 2028. Will he run if Biden steps down? That’s debatable. It’s going to be a tough race and a loss in 2024 probably means no chance of running in 2028. There is a chance no one can beat Trump (and that’s even scarier).
(Also to anyone on the fence, Fuck Trump. Get your ass to the voting booth on election day and vote Biden.)
They keep asking for names then stop responding when you give them one. Hilariously unserious people who just want to scream that we have zero other options as loud as possible.
Has Newsom said he wanted the job?
Again, it’s not about a wishlist. I am NOT AGAINST OTHER CANDIDATES.
Just the endless hand-wringing and dropping names of those who don’t want the fucking job.
I like Newsom. If he were the candidate, I’d vote for him. But he isn’t, at least not yet.
Because they don’t want to undermine the party and an incumbent candidate. But, if the party opened it up and asked, “Who wants to be President?,” there’d be a rush like Black Friday.
There were 27 candidates for the nomination in 2020, but none of them are still interested?
Well duh, you think the Democrats are just gonna say “eh, let Trump have it”
OF COURSE the Democrats would step up if they had to. But they don’t want that scenario. That’s the whole point. They want to coalesce behind Biden.
Well yeah, it’s standard bad faith practice to keep getting stuck on ‘name someone’. That question is an obvious mind-trap that stifles the real point no one from the pro Biden camp wants to concede: Biden is an objectively bad candidate that may lose.
This bad faith argument is not their creation, nor does it really matter.
The DNC will not listen to its constituents (let alone a Lemmy thread)and hold a primary to let Democrats choose a different candidate. No one paying any attention believes that.
The argument serves two purposes i think, to skirt around the fact the DNC doesn’t represent us and won’t hold a primary no matter what , and to keep any real discussion of ranked choice or third party voting from even starting.
Because the DNCs plan to run against fascists forever only works if we stay in a FFTP system like this
If you can’t name a candidate, you’re naming Trump.
He still didn’t give a name
They are more scared of losing, than they are of winning. It’s the liberal way.
Yeah im tempted try an “ignore previous instructions” on some of em they’re so insistent, but my father-in-law sounds just like 'em so i know they are actually real people. His first time voting in his whole entire life was in '20 and now that he has “become political” (his words) he feels comfortable lecturing anyone on politics. He will never see how asinine that is or question the narrative the TV tells him. I figure trump brought a lot of people like that out of the woodwork.
Vermin Supreme!
And preferably, name someone who has announced their candidacy.
Marianne Williamson. I want President Williamson. She has announced her candidacy. I will gladly support the Democrats if she’s their candidate.
Otherwise, I’ll probably support the Greens.
We’d love to, but Biden killed primaries and caucuses. And there’s not a Democrat in existence that will go up against the DNC’s hand-picked candidate after their behavior over the last decade.
When was the last time an incumbent president held primaries?
This year. Biden, Phillips, Williamson, and Palmer. Biden won all primaries except for the American Samoa.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries
It’s almost like people aren’t paying attention to what’s happening before bitching about it.
I know right
Those “primaries” were just for show and you know it.
Because no one serious wants to run against an incumbent.
Because no one
serious wantswas allowed by the DNC to run against an incumbent.Fixed that for you.
Conspiracy theories are a plague.
Nothing conspiratorial about it. Anyone with half a brain could tell from their tradition of not holding a primary at all when there’s an incumbent, as well as their stacking the deck in favor of their chosen candidates in the two previous ones.
You’re acting as if the DNC is a political party that only does what the voters ask for, rather than a for profit private corporation, which is what it’s legally registered as and behaving like.
Bunch of no-names, legally unelectable people and Russian assets have trouble qualifying for the ballot in various states? Sounds like a good thing.
And then when the DNC offered to help them, they rejected the offer? Yeah, totally serious candidates there rofl
That’s not point.
So none of them care enough to speak publicly. Got it.
I wonder how much of it is just undermining Biden. I lump this in with the “just any third party” people. It doesn’t make sense unless your goal is to just undermine Biden to bemoan his situation and the party without rallying behind something more specific. The “just any third party” implies the person is equally stoked about the chances of a Green Party or a Libertarian candidate, which makes no sense given the vastly different platforms.
I wonder how much of it is just undermining Biden.
100% of it. Either directly, or via useful idiots.
I remember when RBG said the same thing. “Who would you rather see on the court other than me?” The answer is literally anyone else who isn’t a christofascist rapist, but they ended up with that one christofascist rapist.
And you’re not able to see the difference between a guaranteed nomination and a national election?
Good luck dragging that corpse past the finish line
Again, name who you think can beat Trump were they to swap in right now. I’m waiting.
JB Pritzker, Gretchen Whitmer, perhaps Gavin Newsom. Even Kamala Harris would have a better chance than Biden. Next to no one is voting Democratic because of Biden, people are voting against Trump. You could swap in literally anyone who isn’t 90% corpse and get at least as good a result, and almost certainly better. This idea that people would be turned off the Democrats because Joe Biden wasn’t the candidate is a joke and I don’t understand why anyone would be under the impression.
Yes, Literally anybody! What a silly premise for question… This is Hillary Clinton all over again. Democrats are being force fed the worst possible candidate we can get.
With that said, Kamala Harris is the best answer I think, for logistical reasons. But let her choose a good running mate that may bring some excitement and I think the democratic voters may come out to vote.
This IS Hillary all over again but it’s only because you dumb fucks are choking down obvious propaganda and asking for more. Just like 2016.
I would be willing to believe JB could do it. don’t know enough about Whitmer, think that Newsom has a chance but could just as easily be a Mitt Romney, and personally think you’re a little out to lunch if you actually think Kamala would win when Hilary didn’t.
Post debate polls have had Harris up on Biden in swing states. Could she win? Maybe, maybe not. But it looks like she’d at least lose less badly than Biden. His debate performance was a death blow.
Kamala has been polling better then Biden. the problem isn’t her popularity, it’s Biden looking like he’s died but doctors have refused to call it so they keep dragging him around. he even tried to salvage his debate performance with an interview with Stephanopoulos and still looked dead.
idk if anyone believes he can take another 4 years without the doctors finally calling it and Kamala replacing him anyway. like, people who think Kamala can’t be a better president than TFG would probably vote TFG anyway.
also it’s not like Biden won last time because everybody loves him. no one does. I’ve never seen an actual fan. he won mostly through negative partisanship against TFG.
don’t know enough about Whitmer
Then you aren’t informed enough to even be talking about this
JB Pritzker
No one knows who that is.
Gretchen Whitmer
Doesn’t want to run.
Gavin Newsom
Doesn’t want to run.
Even Kamala Harris would have a better chance than Biden
A Black woman? You’re in fucking fantasy land.
I already told you my two requisistes, three if you count having a pulse, you should ask the DNC what people their donors would allow to run. I’m sure they have a list of marketable 45-65 white heirs who would love to keep everything exactly as is they’d support.
So you you have no options within the practical realities of the current system leading up to November? Good to know.
It may also be a little late to introduce a new candidate, unless they have great name recognition. Betcha Bernie 2.0 would mobilize a goodly number of people, while centrists would hold their noses, and just vote for Not Trump.
Bernie isn’t running, and Biden isn’t quitting, so we take what we can get. At this point, I would literally vote for a loofah if it ran against Trump.
“‘Get On Board Or Shut The Fuck Up’ is not a particularly compelling pro-democracy bumper sticker,” he said.
Jon Stewart gets it, why can’t you?
Offering to run instead of Biden at this point would basically be political suicide, so it’s no wonder nobody has stepped up. If Biden backs out though the math changes significantly. This is t a very convincing argument.
Democrats can’t name someone until Biden agrees or they have a majority ready to try to force him out. It really is Biden’s decision to step aside. The issue is the polls are saying he should step aside, and it looks like he wants to lose.
No, the pundits are saying he should pull out.
Wrong… the polls are saying he should. Do you want to beat Trump or are you hoping for a miracle?
I dunno I could probably win, not exactly steep competition lol
Dude, anyone. Who in the democratic party is more corrupt than Trump? To paraphrase Biden himself, there are at least fifty people that could win against Trump.
I hope Biden is one of the fifty right now… But I am not certain.
I disagree. My logic is as follows:
Premise 1. Joe Biden cannot beat Trump
Premise 2: Virtually any other democrat can beat Trump
Conclusion: If we want to beat Trump, Biden should step down and be replaced by virtually any other DemocratYou say he can’t beat Trump, but he already beat healthcare, so who knows what else he can beat
It was Medicare, but I understood this reference.
Why can’t Joe beat Trump? Because he seems old and confuses things? You think that’s why people are voting for Trump?
I’ll gladly take old and confused over actively malicious
Don’t forget that the actively malicious option is also old and confused as well.
I mean, if you look at track records, Biden already beat Trump in 100% of previous elections.
And he will keep winning until he loses.
Because last time he beat Trump it was because Covid was the top worry and of course people want the party that promotes health care over Trump when their biggest fear is a global pandemic. Now peoples fears are money. You run the same campaign you ran in 2020 and you’ll lose.
Biden only beat Trump the first time around because of historic voter turnout. Voters just aren’t as enthusiastic to keep Trump out this year.
Self fulfilling prophesy.
Yes. There’s partisans who vote Trump no matter what, but there’s also a pretty large number of “low information voters”. Rather than being necessarily dumb, many of these are people from all kinds of different walks of life who just don’t follow politics that closely and prefer to follow things like dating reality shows or sports instead. These people are not really aware of what happened on Jan 6 other than that there was some sort of riot at the Capitol. They know Trump was charged with a bunch of crimes, but don’t know if they were real crimes or just politics. And when these people see Trump lying confidently and Joe Biden being barely intelligible in response, they like Trump better.
It sucks, yes. But it’s reality. Democrats need someone who can answer Trump forcefully. Or they will lose.
I don’t think the opinion “the man who has control of the nuclear arsenal is showing signs of senility and should not serve another 4 years regardless of who replaces him” is not an unreasonable one
When the current only alternative is someone with clearly worse faculties and intentions, it obviously fucking is. Again, name who you think can beat him. Go ahead. Take into account the entire current political climate. We’ll wait.
this is kinda a ridiculous request. The DNC should be the ones actively finding and presenting alternatives. If it was any other election year what if something happened to their primary candidate?
No one publicly shows interest because the party prevents any alternative. Anyone trying to run is accused of trying to break up the party, look at what happened to Bernie.
I advocated for Bernie, during the primaries, when it was time to choose a Democratic candidate. Note that that time is not now. Now is the time where a democratic candidate need to beat Trump. Do you think even swapping Bernie in now that he could beat Trump?
Do you think even swapping Bernie in now that he could beat Trump?
This question broke me. If the left-leaning voting population of the USA can’t support a single candidate against freaking Trump except Biden then we deserve whatever disaster occurs. That’s embarrassing. Truly childish levels of spitefulness.
Or just that some people dont have any problem supporting Biden right now. Internet’s full of loud assholes during on hills, thats what makes you successful here.
Not trying to question your motives here (seriously, I’m not) but I grimace hearing “we’re only months away from the election, we couldn’t possibly make changes now” because it has a perverse similarity to the argument Mitch McConnell used to ratfuck his way into an extra SC justice. And we all know how that turned out.
If you can’t see the difference, that should be an indicator that perhaps your opinions are not very well informed.
The Polymarket prediction markets gives odds for who will win the presidential election and who will win the democratic nominee. We can compare the odds of each candidate and use Bayes Theorem to determine their chances of winning the presidency if they secure the DNC nomination.
Here’s the results as of posting this comment:
Joe Biden: 27% Kamala Harris: 50% Michelle Obama: 100% Gavin Newsom: 66% Other: 50%
Obviously this doesn’t work perfectly (the Michelle Obama example especially is bizarre), but there is over $300M behind these numbers so people seem to think they’re at least somewhat accurate.
TLDR: there is a lot of money that thinks Joe Biden is one of the worst options
That information doesn’t change anything I’ve said. He can be “trailing trump” and still not be the best candidate the dems could have
I think there are people on the fence (who generally decide the election) who would be swayed by Biden’s apparent dementia
AOC is definitely a voice in politics I’ve come to respect. I can assume pretty confidently that her opinion is well founded and with the right intentions… if she thinks Biden is best option at this point, that tells me pretty conclusively that Biden is genuinely the best option at this point.
The debate shenanigans, the age, whatever: all of that is a fraction of a drop in the ocean compared to the shitstorm that would be Trump presidency. It doesn’t matter if any of us like Biden. Do you want a literal fascist running the country? If no, vote Biden. If yes, abstain / vote for literally anyone else.
I wish it was possible to convince trump supporters that he’s literally not on their side
I’ve been making pitches for the libertarian party to my trumpanzee coworkers. It’s a similar flavor of bullshit as the turds the GOP is already feeding them, so they’re somewhat susceptible to it.
No chance in hell I’ll be able to convince them to vote Biden, so burning a would-be Trump vote on the spoiler effect is the next best thing.
One of his better nuggets for this crowd is his suggestion that they “take the guns away first and do [sic] process later”.
I’m sure you’re an excellent spokesperson for ideas you think are similar to maga bullshit.
I mean, you’re being sarcastic, but being able to give an elevator pitch for something you’re personally against is a great skill. I was a speech & debate nerd in high school, and that was definitely one of the more valuable lessons.
If nothing else, it helps to understand what ‘other side’ is thinking. We (self included) have a tendency to demonize others who don’t align with our values.
Abortion is one of the best examples of this. If you look at the other side exclusively through the lens of the other’s echo chamber, you have 1) misogynistic bigots who want to control women down to their organ function and punish them for failing to adhere to a religious standard that they don’t subscribe to, vs 2) women who recreationally murder babies and redirect responsibility for their promiscuous lifestyle onto the healthcare system.
I think this is why we never make any meaningful progress on that controversy: all of the mainstream arguments are shit arguments in terms of their ability to actually resonate with the people they’re directed at. You can probably guess where I stand on abortion based on my first post here, but I can 100% make a pitch for either.
Other topics are no exception. I fucking loathe the MAGA crowd, but calling them a Nazi isn’t going to change any minds. I don’t love the LP, but they’re significantly more benign than the GOP. The two have overlap, so fuck yeah I can work with that. I’d love for the LP to continue to grow and refine itself - best case scenario is the GOP shrinks to an obscure extremist group, while any shreds of sanity flock to the LP to make a much more productive rival to big blue. I don’t have to actually support the LP to want them to do well in that regard; if I can boost them at the expense of the GOP, win-win!
Steelmanning is hard. I have gotten better at it, but it’s kinda through empathy rather than analysis.
Abortion rhetoric is a shitshow of fallacies. Almost nobody is willing to slow down. And, yeah, the best part is that while failing to understand the other side’s motivations they’ll accuse the other side of lacking empathy.
I can handle the “trump funny” people, but anyone that genuinely likes Trump drive me batty. I don’t think Trump has any ideals to hold onto to begin with, so it’s all cult of personality shit.
With some exceptions, a lot of the anti-tax racist rednecks have been sidelined - the dinosaurs are dying. I went to the 2020 LP state convention because I was asked to, and I was really happy seeing the dudes that made me leave 16 years ago sitting at a table alone.
Steelmanning
I didn’t know there was an actual word for it!
The abortion shitshow was actually the topic of that lesson because of how tribal each side has gotten. That was… idk, 15 years ago? Not much has changed lol. Initially we were just told to prepare a debate on it, so we ofc pulled heavily from whichever echo chamber we adhered to, and we had all our (very flawed) talking points ready to go. Then the prof dropped the ol’ switcheroo. Thoroughly broke highschool me’s brain - in hindsight it was pretty funny to be in the middle of a room full of people who thought we knew our shit, all suddenly realizing we don’t know squat.
That was a fucking good prof!
The LP… they sound alright on paper. The non-agression principle is solid. All the emphasis on a ‘free market’ sounds nice if you assume corporations elect for ethical practices when they’re not mandated (lol). I can talk em up in the scope of a lunch break; it’d be hard to keep the ball rolling much passed that though.
No, nothing has changed. And that was a good professor. I’m kind of in the place where we’ve picked metrics to decide when it’s fine to let a life go so why can’t we look at the other side and aim for a non-magical start.
The LP has pretty good social ideas. First electoral vote for a woman. First to include sex workers in the party platform. The NAP is interesting because both the left and right are down, we just define aggression differently.
With sane liability laws and a financial system that isn’t built for large corps, a free market could work. Where business has responsibility for its actions and is rated based on customer liability vs assets. Libertarians don’t want no regulation, they just prefer private regulation. Ancaps are kind of the same. So long as we keep trying to patch up our bullshit system instead of addressing root causes, we’ll continue getting fucked.
I’m still kind of a libertarian. My anti-corp and non-propertarian leanings make me somewhat left politically, but I have strong ethics about helping each other and those that can’t really help themselves. I just don’t like using violence to make people do what I want.
ideas that are objectively similar to maga bullshit.
When your knowledge of them is bullshit, sure.
You are cute. How far into the shit-filled rabbithole do I have to go into libertarianism before I find your specific flavour of bullshit? Somewhere between rand paul and ayn rand? Or do we go deeper?
Libertarians man. What a fucking joke.
I’m ethically closer to a leftist, but your choices highlight your ignorance but I guess that makes it easier to be smarmy.
I’d really prefer another candidate, but under our current system and circumstances, Biden is our best option.
That’s how democracy works. You rarely get to pick a candidate who is perfectly aligned with you. You pick the least bad option.
Someone mentioned it in the thread about Elizabeth Warren supporting Biden. It isn’t odd that smart, anti-wealthy, and anti-Trump at all costs progressives are backing Biden, and wealthy Democrat donors and centrist Democrats are demanding change.
These people see the risk a new candidate would bring. The wealthy just want someone who reflects their image. Either candidate doesn’t really hurt their lifestyle.
It isn’t odd that smart, anti-wealthy, and anti-Trump at all costs progressives are backing Biden, and wealthy Democrat donors and centrist Democrats are demanding change.
The wealthy centrist Dems believe they’re in an excellent position to foist an even bigger turd on the party (I’ve seen Joe Manchin and Michael Bloomberg and - of fucking course - Hillary Clinton floated as “moderate” replacements to Far-Left Super Radical Joe Biden).
The younger and less influential (although hardly anti-wealthy - AOC is a prodigious fundraiser who represents one of the richest districts in the nation) politicians who have already stacked up political favors with the incumbent don’t want to see him casually replaced by an even more obnoxious neoliberal.
That doesn’t make Biden a strong choice. It doesn’t even make him an “anti-wealthy” choice (Biden was fully on board with the Wall Street bailouts under Bush and the Silicon Valley bailouts during his own term). It just makes him the “safe” choice for the AOC-aligned caucus, relative to an even more nakedly corporate convention insider pick.
Biden doesn’t make policy decisions standing at podium reading a teleprompter. He sits in meeting and has discussions with advisors and has follow up discussions and rewrites policies and discusses votes and rewrites again with further discussions. That’s who I’m voting for and I think he is still able to do that.
They know this already. They aren’t going to be educated on the matter. They’re not voting and working hard to convince others not to as well.
The best thing you can do is call this out when you see it. Ask them to answer how they’d prefer life under Trump’s thumb. Ask them who else could defeat Trump that is running right now. Ask them what are our other options. They’ll do their best to bullshit through responses, but at the end of the day-
They know we have none.
Ask them how they’re support a free Palestine, while being able to see Trump suggesting Israel “finish the job” but that is somehow not enough to vote against him.
These people cannot answer any of these questions in good faith. I’ve asked them, and tons of others have. They distract and counter with bad faith bullshit. Then they disappear- only to reappear elsewhere with the same bullshit.
You cannot reason with, or inform to educate them. They know the facts. And they’re here to urge you not to vote against Trump anyway.
What does that tell you?
Why is this particular political structure and electoral process and set of parties the best? Can’t we be more creative? We can do so much more than vote in this same process which makes us choose the ‘lesser evil’ to save democracy, every election for decades now. I can’t bring myself to legitimize the US and still feel a clean conscience any longer.
Oh we can do a HELL of a lot better. We have weeds here that are more charismatic. But this is where we are because a large portion of our population doesn’t like to do shit about politics until it’s too late- which is a cycle that resets every four years.
America is essentially a cautionary tale on how not paying attention hurts people.
That there are a lot of bot accounts that can quickly inflame an issue with a pretty obvious grain of truth to it. And that there doesn’t seem to be much of a response other than “Biden is better than Trump” or “I support Biden due to his past competence”. Which feels like a very nothing burger of an answer, and instead gives plenty more questions rather than reassurance for Biden’s campaign. Trump is an dangerous idiot and I’d be the first to say not vote for Trump, a frankly sane and common sentiment. Honestly, the more time goes on, the more it feels like the arguments that are posited for voting for Biden without answering basic questions actually feel like they are being posed by bot accounts.
Biden’s accomplishments have been posted time and again in these arguments. I’m not going to repeat them here as all the times they’ve been listed clearly has done nothing.
The fact remains- you vote for an administration- NOT a single man. And his administration has brought a positive.
He is better than Trump because he isn’t a felonious rapist.
That shout be enough. If it isn’t, your president isn’t really your biggest problem.
For 4 years? We need 2 vice presidents if biden doesn’t drop out for me to vote for his dying brain
If the president dies and the vice president takes over then the a new president appoints a new vice president subject to congressional approval.
Aite I guess biden gets my vote then. Mybad i wasn’t knowledgeable about the process.
Support Joe Biden and ranked choice.
Ranked choice implies the existence of casual choice
Choice can become harder once you go past 7 candidates.
Until we know different, me too.
To be fair “He is in this race and I support him” is like saying “He’s one of the candidates of all time”. It is a milquetoast, borderline sarcastic endorsement.
It’s what republicans do. Back your team. It’s one of their best plays to win.
No kidding, because she knows he’s going to lose, but if he’s unwilling to step down it’s literally the only play she has at this point.
No one is going to come out and pretend Biden is some great candidate, because he’s not. No amount of fake-hype is going to change his chances.
You SEE the fallout from Project 2025 becoming mainstream?
I see the polling that matches up with every lost campaign going back decades.
Was this the same polling that said Hillary was going to win?
No, that polling was taken regarding a different person 8 years ago.
I would rather have a Muppet for a President than white trash like Trump.
Fuck Trump. But also, I think with divisions the way they are, we have to be careful how we engage with our criticisms. And my problem with calling Trump “white trash” is layered. First, white trash has classically been used to denigrate lower class white folks. There’s more to unpack there than I want to tackle, but to oversimplify, I feel like it is unnecessarily classist and brings in race at the same time. I’m sure there are plenty of people who you could call white trash that aren’t racist, traitorous, scam artists. Also, I would consider Trump either not lower class, or a class traitor. And on top of that, it kind of seems like the least concerning thing about him. Him being cringe or gross or just generally repugnant is so 2016. We’re now in the midst of several global catastrophes that this animated blob of greed and hatred will almost certainly pour rocketfuel on.
Please don’t insult white trash like that.
First- I actually really like seeing AOC not being one of those “burn the house down” politicians as I knew her when she started. It seems like she’s learned what it takes to get a large group of people to do one thing, and outrage politics does not do that. Frankly this is the restraint I would look for in a future presidential nominee.
Second- at a base level I’m very for Biden stepping down and giving us the opportunity to escape this hellhole of an election cycle. John Stewart put it pretty well to the DNC- “Do you understand the opportunity you have here? Do you have any idea how thirsty Americans are for any hint of inspiration or leadership, and a release from this choice of a megalomaniac and a suffocating gerontocracy?”
I always look for reasonable takes from opposing viewpoints, and I did find American Historian Allan Lichtman’s argument for why Biden stepping down would not be the best idea. Here’s the 6 minute video of his 13 keys to the Whitehouse which has predicted 9 of the past 10 elections.
TL;DW:
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Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
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No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
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Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
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No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
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Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
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Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
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Major policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy.
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No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
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No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
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No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
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Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
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Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
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Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
If 5 or fewer of these statements are False, then it is predicted that the incumbent will win. His take is that replacing Biden will do nothing but make point 2 & 3 turn from True statements to False statements, and increase the chances of Trump winning.
While crystal balls are everywhere and you could point to other political scientists who would say different, I was looking for a decent take on the counterpoint. I would also say that in political science, we like to have tools to help us make predictions so we can make actions. Just going on deep gut feeling won’t cut it. Having a tool whose measurements don’t always align with how you feel an outcome should be doesn’t necessarily mean the tool is bad, it means it works independently from your biases. If you watch the video, I think he puts it well as the election is a thumbs up or thumbs down on the party more than it is the individual leader. It might be a helpful thought exercise to change the words “Trump” to “Republican” and “Biden” to “Democrat” when discussing the race as charisma and celebrity only goes so far in politics, but that’s what we get caught up in the most.
I actually really like seeing AOC not being one of those “burn the house down” politicians as I knew her when she started
But that’s why peopled liked her. Who she is now is basically totally unrepresentative of who she ran as.
To some degree this is always going to be true when you elect a new person to a new position. Think of it as a video game enthusiast becoming an actual developer.
As someone playing a game, it’s really easy to suggest ideas and changes and fixes which sound like simple common sense to do. When you actually see the intricate code however, and how it’s structured and run, you realize all your ideas from before aren’t as easy to implement as you thought. Your mindset evolves to instead focus on practical solutions which have clear ways to implement.
AOC adopting more practical positions is exactly what you want to see. It shows that she’s thinking of how to get those goals done. Bernie operates much the same way.
What would be concerning is someone who goes to Congress for the first time and doesn’t change. It would mean they’re dishonest about what’s actually realistic to get done, and they’re just telling you what you want to hear so you’ll vote for them.
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Realistically, I’m not crazy about Biden, but if we wanted someone better we should have held primaries. Changing now is short sighted and won’t get us a more progressive candidate.
All we’ll get now is someone further to the right of Biden. It won’t be the electorate choosing a new Democratic nominee, it will be party insiders who choose someone even more out of touch than Biden.
but if we wanted someone better we should have held primaries.
Bruh …
Biden and the DNC is why we didn’t have a primary…
They’re the ones that prevented the primary. They’re the ones that decide if it’s Biden. And they’re the ones that would get to replace him.
They’re the fucking problem, why act like voters have any say in the process?
Do you think “we” as voters didn’t want a primary? It’s party insiders the whole way. And if you vote for Biden anyways, you’re saying “yeah, i liked how this worked just fine.” DNC screwed bernie twice, and RFK, Marianne, and Dean this time. Regardless of who you would back ultimately, the DNC removes all democracy from the process then says they’re saving democracy.
Some seem to think Harris would be the presumptive nominee:
https://www.axios.com/2024/07/04/kamala-harris-replace-biden-2024-election
should have held primaries.
… cheerfully overlooking the fact that saying “we thought this was the guy 4 years ago but this other guy is definitely the one” has never gone well EVER?
It went so bad in 68, that we got Nixon.
If our goal this time around is “save democracy by not electing Trump”, is it fun to risk certain loss by switching?
She is becoming mama bear sooner that I ever thought possible.
I think a lot of people are overthinking this. She’s supporting Biden because as of today the battle is “over”
https://www.axios.com/2024/07/09/biden-house-democrats-withdraw-nominee
No use falling on swords anymore, apparently.
This is going to be awful though, as Biden is going to get demolished in another debate, and it’ll look terrible if he refuses.
- One House Democrat who was in both meetings said: “Most of our caucus is still with him … meaning he’ll stay in. Which sucks for our country.”
Pretty sure ballot rules and campaign finance laws are a big reason why it is too difficult to switch.
If democracy is at stake, and the threat of fascism is serious, they should change the rules and laws.
Harris would have access to the funds from their campaign, she’d essentially inherit Biden’s war chest. That’s part of why she’s the logical choice, she can actually use that money to hit the ground running in terms of spreading whatever message they need to get out in the event the candidate changes.
Fuckos took the worst possible shot of AOC into the article. IDK what’s this mediaite site is, but they seem to present her position as stupid.
Look at how Donald is presented even in articles he’s criticized in.
Yeah the bias is immediately obvious, it’s not even their photo so they very deliberately chose this
My heroine…
I probably shouldn’t. I work tomorrow…
Lmao, took me a minute to understand the joke.
Take note how all the world politics experts that were yelling “gEnOciDe jOe”, are now somehow experts on cognitive function and one’s ability to run a political cabinet.
Also take note how seemingly overnight- they all shifted their concern to beating everyone over the head with reports on how Biden isn’t up for the job- despite the fact that we all know that news media is in the business to profit from dumbasses that eat this shit up.
This is an obvious movement to disrupt the election. VOTE LIKE LIVES DEPEND ON IT.
Their narrative is that they don’t want an old man incapable of making speeches, yet they’re fine to see for a rapist felon that spent the entire debate lying his ass off.
VOTE!
